It is, after all, a relative term

It’s getting a tad difficult to know what constitutes “normal” these days, be it in the real estate markets, the financial markets, the credit markets…

The “normal” that I was speaking to was in reference to our routines around here.  We have had a busy month of replacing computers, having team members out of town, catching up on Christmas cards, attending reunions and so it goes.  All of a sudden I notice that more than a month has past since I’ve thought about some of the more normal day to day routines, including posting here.

That said, Christmas is behind us, and 2008 will be over in the blink of an eye… routines will be on hold for a while longer yet, but I thought this afternoon would be a good time to get back to at least some of the basics.

I did manage to post the Victoria Real Estate Board statistics for November back at the start of the month. Not surprisingly, sales continued to slide through November as the crisis in both the financial and credit markets continued to weigh on everyone’s minds, however, there are sales happening.

The bulk of the real estate sales in Greater Victoria are either condominiums under approximately $350,000 or single family dwellings under approximately $700,000. For our own office we had two sales in both October and November that fell into those criteria. 

For this month, two of our listings sold in the $1,400,000 range in the last week, one a Gordon Head waterfront and the other a character water view home on Beach Drive, close to the golf course.  Another waterfront on Hollywood Crescent also sold for $1,400,000 last week.

Given the relatively low number of property sales so far in December (a seasonally slow month) we expect the three sales over $1 million to nudge the average sale price up in December from November.  It will be very interesting to see the local media’s take on the the December sales figures if the average does indeed go up. 

Regardless of what the media may write, this is another good example of why averages are often a poor indicator of what is happening in a market.  Specifically, averages can be misleading if one or two sales significantly alter the data. 

This is why we prefer to consider the median values, I’m in the midst of compiling median data for the Victoria Real Estate Board going back to 1989, I’ll post some figures once I’ve had a chance to crunch the numbers, which I expect will be soon now that food, drink and family season is almost behind us!

Once compiled, I hope to illustrate a few things with the median data, namely that we can argue that the current real estate market is actually more “normal” than what the last few years brought us.  Aditionally, I hope to use the data as a reminder that real estate markets are far more regional in nature than the financial markets, our market is far different than the likes of San Diego, Florida, Pheonix, Ontario and so on.  I hope to have that posted in the next couple of days, if not early next week.

Finally, I always like to search for a balance.  In the face of so much negative news this winter, it was nice to see that some Canadians have a positive outlook for 2009!

We wish you, your family and friends best wishes for a great New Year’s celebration and a wonderful 2009!

Statistics from the Victoria Real Estate Board.

The number of property sales throughout Greater Victoria declined in November as buyers remained cautious due to concerns over the economy and direction of the market.

A total of 268 homes and other properties sold in November through the Victoria Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) down from the 316 sales in October. There were 623 sales in November of last year. November’s sales were the lowest monthly sales since December, 1999. The number of properties available for sale at the end of November was 4,459. That represents a 40 per cent increase compared to November of last year but a further decline from the 4,680 properties available for sale at the end of October.

Victoria Real Estate Board President, Tony Joe, says it’s clear the uncertain economic climate is having an effect on the housing market. “More people are taking a ‘wait and see’ approach and are less inclined to buy or sell unless they have to given all the uncertainty we hear about almost every day. Despite this, so far there has only been a modest effect on prices for single family homes and townhomes.” Joe noted that the average price of single family homes in Greater Victoria last month was $524,128, down from $565,741 in October; the six-month average was $562,772 though the median price in November at $500,000 was up slightly from $495,000 in October.

Condominium prices were most affected last month. The overall average price for condominiums was $273,890 last month, posting a significant decline from $323,028 in October. The average for the last six months was $308,133. The median price for condominiums in November was $258,450. The average price of all townhomes sold last month was $447,370 up from $389,731 in October due in large part to two sales, one in Victoria for over $775,000 and one in Sidney for over $950,000. The six month average was $425,086 while the median price in November was substantially lower at $372,250.

MLS® sales last month included 153 single family homes, 77 condominiums, 20 townhomes and seven manufactured homes.

Summary Report and Graphs

Monthly Sales Summary
Average Selling Price Graphs
Active Listings, New Listings and Sales Graphs